Computergest├╝tzte Epidemiologie
Mathematische Modellierung
Simulation
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Eu project PNC-EURO on Streptococcus pneumoniae (Pneumococci)

The general objective of the project is to establish the epidemiology of Streptococcus pneumoniae (Pnc) in a variety of European countries prior to the large scale introduction of new conjugate vaccines. The study will produce comparative assessments of alternative vaccination strategies with the Pnc conjugate vaccines and use this information to design cost-effective vaccination programmes against Pnc infection. The study will provide important scientific data to optimise preventive strategies against Pnc.

Project schedule: from November 2000 to October 2003
Project homepage
Project partners: see below

Transmission dynamics of pneumococci (PhD Thesis)

Together with Mrs. Y. Zhang, we develop deterministic and stochastic models to derive predictions on how the reduction of one serotype may change the prevalence pattern of the other serotypes. In our current work, we compare the effect of the above described indirect interaction by cross-reacting antibodies to the effect of a more direct interaction of bacteria which colonize the same host. Several different types of direct competition can be considered: (a) it may be that a serotype is impeded in infecting a person which is already colonized by another serotype, (b) as an effect of direct competition, the duration of colonization may be shortened if a person is colonized by two or more serotypes at the same time, or (c) patients who are colonized by more than one serotype may be less infectious to others (in respect to each single colonizing serotype) than would be the case if they were only colonized by one serotype.